►The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an outright affront to the international norm of non-aggression. The article discusses three strategic considerations that require South Korea's urgent attention.

►South Korea cannot afford to remain an idle bystander to the Ukraine crisis. Korea should be clear in its solidarity with the Ukrainian people, and vigilant in its preparation for what its neighbors might be emboldened to do in case they learned the wrong lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Korea must also step up its diplomatic efforts to expand the common ground between major powers to reduce misunderstanding.

I. Strategic implications of Ukraine to Korea

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an outright affront to the international norm of non-aggression. It is wreaking havoc on security, economic and humanitarian fronts with regional and global consequences. What is worse is that it is committed by a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council. As a result, the Security Council is in limbo when it is needed most as the primary organ for international peace and security. Most of South Korean media and public interest tends to focus on the economic and socio-political impacts of the Russian invasion. But the implications for Korea are much deeper than that.

Here are three strategic considerations that require South Korea's urgent attention.

Firstly, the invasion reflects the strategic tectonic shifts occurring along the fault lines between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China, Russia and their allies on the other. The fault lines are now being drawn in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, the South/East China Seas and the Korean Peninsula. [1] A large arc of instability is emerging globally along these fault lines. Undoubtedly the Korean peninsula is at the forefront of the global fault lines like Ukraine at the other end.

While many in the West believe the rise of China is to blame, the bigger culprit would be the restructuring of U.S. overseas commitments. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is a prime example. The withdrawal is leaving unstable power vacuum behind. Those with an irredentist agenda on the fault lines may be tempted to change the status quo forcefully by exploiting the perceived power vacuum left by the retreating United States. This vacuum is likely to grow. The root causes of this vacuum are the twofold divides prevalent in the international community in terms of wealth distribution (Global North vs. South) and value perception (global West vs. East). These two divides have weakened the base for any global consensus and thus caused the global governance deficit to grow.[2] This is why South Korea ― a country surrounded by powerful neighbors embroiled in intense territorial disputes ― must pay close attention to the developments in Ukraine. [3] We in South Korea must remind ourselves that what is happening in Ukraine can happen to us anytime.

Secondly, the Russian invasion raises the specter of a nuclear war, which has long been considered a taboo given how destructive nuclear weapons are. The invasion represents the first ever attempt by a nuclear power to alter the status quo by force, making threats of nuclear retaliation against any intervening power.

Russia is using the nuclear threat to deter any country from providing Ukraine with conventional military support. For the first time, the largest nuclear state not only invaded a neighboring country, but also made a threat of nuclear retaliation against any intervening countries. It reminds the world how spontaneously a nuclear confrontation could arise out of misunderstanding or misjudgment of intentions among the nuclear states.[4] Without the protection of extended nuclear deterrence by a formal ally, Ukraine has fallen prey to brazen nuclear blackmail. South Korea, as a nuclear umbrella state, must learn the lesson and redouble its efforts to uphold the credibility of allied nuclear protection.[5] Second, South Korea and the United States must regroup on their management of the alliance relationship. Among others, South Korea needs the United States to deter and defend against any forms of North Korean aggression or provocations.[6] They must prepare for any possible contingency and take concrete measures to further enhance the credibility of the extended deterrence provided by the United States.

Last but not least, the invasion is the first serious stress test for the Biden administration's pivot to Asia. Before and after the invasion, Washington was quick to reassure the partners in Asia of its security commitments. It reaffirmed that the United States remained willing and ready to handle a two-front contingency. [7]

But when it comes to demonstrating how robust one's commitment really is, actions speak louder than words. Extra effort is needed to prevent miscalculations and explore the space for diplomacy to narrow down the scope for misunderstanding. Unless Washington shows its resolve through action, those on the other side may miscalculate and embark on a risky venture.

These strategic undercurrents will continue to play out, but there are uncertainties as well.

II. Future uncertainties and tasks for Korea

First of all, it is uncertain how the situation will evolve on the ground in Ukraine, although it is unlikely that President Putin will change course anytime soon. Therefore, it depends in large part on how determined the Ukrainian people are in opposing one of the top military powers of the world. It will also depend on how much the world can chip in diplomatically to help mediate the way-out. The type and extent of support provided by the U.S. and Europe will continue to be crucial. The whole international community must work together to find a way to put an end to unwarranted humanitarian suffering of innocent civilians. The United Nations must step up its behind-the-scenes efforts to alleviate humanitarian suffering and to enhance the coordination of international good offices.

Secondly for Korea, one thing is clear. The developments in Ukraine will be closely watched by the major powers on both sides as well as the players along the fault lines. As one of the fault line states, South Korea cannot afford to remain an idle bystander to the Ukraine crisis. Korea should be clear in its solidarity with the Ukrainian people who are showing incredible courage to put up a seemingly unwinnable fight against a Goliath. Korea needs to be steadfast in its opposition to aggression and condemn these crimes against humanity under any circumstances. Korea must be clear-minded in its analysis of the various factors influencing military decisions on the ground and how they affect the broader strategic considerations mentioned above. [8]

Korea must be vigilant in its preparation for what its neighbors might be emboldened to do in case they learned the wrong lesson from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Korea must also step up its diplomatic efforts to expand the common ground between major powers to reduce misunderstanding.[9] South Korea needs to develop an effective strategy to navigate this fundamental rebalancing of relations between the United States and China.[10]

Thirdly in the Northeast Asian region and beyond, there are high stakes for South Korea in helping the U.S. and China manage their growing competition responsibly and in a peaceful manner. [11] The responsible management of the US-China relations within the mutually agreeable guardrails is critical not only for China and the US but also for the whole world. It can start from the issue areas of low political differences and high global consequences. Such examples include the existential threats against the whole humanity such as the weapons of mass destruction terrorism, the climate crisis and the global pandemic. South Korea can be a facilitator of the Sino-American dialogue on these issues. This is all the more urgent as Northeast Asia lacks multilateral security institutions like OSCE. South Korea needs to nurture the habit of dialogue in the region starting with confidence-building in issue areas of common concern.[12]

Indeed these are tough tasks for South Korea which is smaller than its neighbors. But it is in a rare position to talk to both the US and China.

The need for cool-headed analysis is all the greater as polarized domestic politics has long muddled public discourse on what constitutes Korea's core national interests. South Korea must do everything it can to prevent the worst case scenario. At the same time, South Korea must make every effort aimed at achieving the best possible scenario. These two things require South Korean unity and proactive creativity in facilitating the US-China dialogue as well as the multilateral security institution building in the region.